| Causes of Global Warming |
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The climate
system varies both through natural, "internal"
processes as well as in response to variations in external
"forcing" from both human and non-human causes,
including solar activity, volcanic emissions, and greenhouse
gases. Climatologists agree that the earth has warmed
recently. The detailed causes of this change remain an
active field of research, but the scientific consensus
identifies greenhouse gases as the primary cause of the
recent warming. Outside of the scientific community,
however, this conclusion can be controversial.
Adding carbon dioxide (CO2) or methane (CH4) to Earth's
atmosphere, with no other changes, will make the planet's
surface warmer; greenhouse gases create a natural greenhouse
effect without which temperatures on Earth would be an
estimated 30 °C (54 °F) lower, and the Earth
uninhabitable. It is therefore not correct to say that there
is a debate between those who "believe in" and
"oppose" the theory that adding carbon dioxide or
methane to the Earth's atmosphere will, absent any
mitigating actions or effects, result in warmer surface
temperatures on Earth. Rather, the debate is about what the
net effect of the addition of carbon dioxide and methane
will be, when allowing for compounding or mitigating
factors.
One example of an important feedback process is ice-albedo
feedback. The increased CO2 in the atmosphere warms the
Earth's surface and leads to melting of ice near the poles.
As the ice melts, land or open water takes its place. Both
land and open water are on average less reflective than ice,
and thus absorb more solar radiation. This causes more
warming, which in turn causes more melting, and the cycle
continues.
Due to the thermal inertia of the earth's oceans and slow
responses of other indirect effects, the Earth's current
climate is not in equilibrium with the forcing imposed by
increased greenhouse gases. Climate commitment studies
indicate that, even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at
present day levels, a further warming of perhaps 0.5 °C to
1.0 °C (0.9–1.8 °F) would still occur.
18 Nov
2006 |
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